The "Frequency First" Transit Mandate
The “Frequency First” Transit Mandate
Also known as: The “Show Up and Go” Act
The Core Mandate: Municipal transit funding shall prioritize High Frequency (headways < 15 minutes) over Fare Reductions or Geographic Coverage. “Fare-Free” programs are prohibited unless the system has already achieved “Turn Up and Go” frequency (minimum 15-minute intervals) on 80% of core routes. Until then, every dollar of subsidy must buy more buses, not cheaper tickets.
1. The Value Stack (Why This Matters)
🧪 The Science: “The Downs-Thomson Paradox”
Traffic engineering proves that you cannot solve congestion by building roads; you can only solve it by improving transit.
- The Paradox: The speed of car traffic on a city’s road network is determined by the speed of the equivalent public transit trip.
- The Reality: If the bus is slow or infrequent, everyone drives, clogging the roads until driving becomes as slow as the bus. To speed up traffic, you must make the bus faster than the car.
- The Conclusion: Frequency is the only mechanism that shifts mode-share. Price is secondary.
❤️ The Life: “The Freedom of ‘No Schedule’”
- The Pain: If a bus comes every 60 minutes, you are a prisoner to the schedule. If you miss it, you are late for work.
- The Promise: If a bus comes every 10 minutes, you don’t need a schedule. You just walk to the stop. This is “Freedom of Movement.”
- The Choice: Riders consistently poll that they would rather pay $2.50 for a reliable bus than pay $0.00 for a bus that never comes.
💼 The Business: “The Employee Pipeline”
- The Cost: “Free Transit” often leads to dirty, poorly maintained systems that the middle class abandons. This turns transit into a “welfare service” rather than a “workforce utility.”
- The ROI: Businesses cannot hire if workers cannot get there reliably. A high-frequency network expands the “Labor Catchment Area” for every employer in the city.
2. Implementation Mechanisms
2.1 The “15-Minute Floor”
- Requirement: No “Core Route” shall operate with headways longer than 15 minutes between 6:00 AM and 8:00 PM.
- Trade-off: If budget is limited, the agency is authorized to cut low-ridership coverage routes (the “empty winding bus”) to consolidate resources into high-frequency corridors.
2.2 Targeted Subsidies vs. Universal Zero
- Prohibition: Blanket “Zero Fare” policies are banned if they result in service cuts or deferred maintenance.
- Alternative: Use “Fair Fares” (Means-Tested Discounts). Give free passes to the poor, seniors, and students, but collect revenue from the middle class and tourists to fund system reliability.
2.3 The “Transit Benefit” Tax (The Revenue Replacement)
- Mechanism: If fares are reduced, the lost revenue must be legally replaced before the reduction takes effect.
- Source: A payroll tax on large employers (>50 staff) located within 500m of a high-frequency corridor. They are the primary beneficiaries of the labor access; they pay for the pipeline.
3. The Integrity Engine Checks
🤖 The “CFO” Agent Trigger
- Logic: The AI scans any proposal labeled “Fare Free.”
- The Test:
IF fare_revenue == 0 AND replacement_revenue == NULL THEN flag_error("🚨 FISCAL CLIFF WARNING: Unfunded Mandate.") - Why: Removing fares without replacing the ~30% operating budget they provide leads to the “Transit Death Spiral” (Service cuts $\to$ fewer riders $\to$ more cuts).
🤝 For the Business Community (BIA)
Bottom Line Impact:
- CapEx (Upfront Cost): Low. We aren’t building light rail; we are running existing buses more often.
- OpEx (Tax): Moderate Increase (Transit Benefit Tax).
- Revenue Opportunity: High. “Turn Up and Go” frequency drastically increases foot traffic and employee reliability.
- The Trade: Would you pay a 0.5% payroll tax to guarantee your employees are never late due to a “missed bus” again?
🗣️ The Drafting Room
This policy is a living document. Help us break it, fix it, and pass it.
🧪 Science Check
- The “Coverage” Argument: If we cut the winding neighborhood bus to fund the main line, do we hurt the elderly who can’t walk to the main road? How do we solve the “Last Mile” (e.g., subsidized Uber/Micro-transit)?
- Rural Reality: Does the Downs-Thomson Paradox apply in a town of 10,000 people? Or is this just “Big City” physics?
💼 Business Reality
- The “Freeloader” Problem: Why should a business pay the Transit Tax if their employees all drive? Should the tax be based on location (proximity to transit) or usage?
🏠 Local Life
- Equity: “Free Transit” feels like a huge help to the poor. Is a “Means-Tested Pass” (lots of paperwork) actually a barrier? How do we make the discount automatic?